Abstract
We all know that history repeats itself and this is an effort on ‘how’.
Recently the book ‘The Fourth Turning‘ impressed me, for introducing to the concept of Generational Dynamics. The book mentions that a society passes through time in cycles. Each cycle is of roughly 80 (or 90) years and has four ages/phases in time. During these cycles of time, the book further describes that society hosts four kinds of people, living differently in each age.They are us, now and then ! Wonderful ! 
I was discussing with one of my friend, a similar alternative model – Evolution of civilization. It is clearly inspired by Theory of Evolution, generational dynamics and Tytler Cycle (unverified attribution as per article). Here it goes -
During the known history of humans,it is often observed that different civilizations emerge on the stage, survive, flourish and disappear. Some of them touch the peak of their time before either disappearing or disintegrating or surrendering their positions to others better than them. Each civilization brings new, unique and wonderful things during the journey.
A civilization goes through following phases – Crisis, survival, growth, strength, spread and fragmentation – in that order It is analogous to a newborn, living its life from infancy, childhood to adolescence, adulthood to finally old age before death (Albeit, death is not directly applicable to civilizations and more on this later). This process goes on forever, in cycles.
A cycle has following transitions -
- First warriors fight the wars and bring peace to the land. (Crisis to Survival)
- Then merchantmen and traders bring prosperity. (Survival to Growth)
- Thereafter scientists and engineers bring advancement for the land. (Growth to Strength)
- Artists, teachers and spiritual leaders bring prominence. (Strength to Spread)
- Leadership fights for dominance and leads people to fragmentation (Spread to Fragmentation)
- And finally fragmentation to conflicts (Fragmentation to Crisis)
As explained by Darwin-Wallace in the Theory of Evolution, a species goes from survival to growth to radiation. A civilization is a social species (See meme. More on this in next post).
Not every civilization may go through all these phases. Only fortunate few make it to the advanced phases of strength and spread. Most civilizations struggle with crisis – one way or other. Few cross the barriers to reach survival and growth. Even fewer show wisdom to invest towards strength. Finally fewest leap into spread. However no one can not spread forever. Very confidence gained through growth, strength and spread pushes them into fragmentation first and finally to crisis, just to repeat the cycle.
In next post, we would see how people react to these phases and transitions. To be concluded…
